对中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的再检验  

An Empirical Review on China's Carbon Kuznets Curve

作　　者：王艺明[1,2] 胡久凯 Wang Yiming Hu Jiukai

机构地区：[1]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院 [2]厦门大学经济学院财政系 [3]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第11期51-64,共14页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家自科基金项目"中国式金融资源配置模式下的宏观调控政策体系研究"(项目编号:71373217);国家社科基金重点项目"稳增长;调结构;转方式的理论和实践研究"(项目编号:14AZD018)的支持

摘　　要：现有基于省级或行业面板数据的研究文献多认为我国经济发展水平和人均碳排放量之间存在"倒U型"的曲线关系,即服从环境库兹涅茨曲线。然而,传统面板回归结果存在残差横截面相关且不平稳的问题,所得到的估计结果不稳健。本文应用Pesaran(2006)提出的对横截面相关性和异质性进行调整的CCE估计方法,研究发现各省的人均GDP与人均碳排放之间存在协整关系,碳排放轨迹表现为单调递增的线性形态。本文的研究发现意味着对于碳排放而言,环境库兹涅茨假说不成立,并不存在随着经济增长而降低碳排放的经济运行机制。Most of the researches based on provincial or industrial panel data prove that there exists inverse-U shape relationship between carbon emission and economic development, which means carbon emission obey Environmental Kuznets Curve. However, Traditional panel regression model subjects to the problem of residual cross-sectional dependence and no stability, and the result is not robust. This paper employed Pesaran （2006）＇ s CCE estimators to carry the empirical analysis. The results reveal that there exists panel co-integration between GDP per capita and carbon emissions per capita. China＇s CKC shows a monotonically increasing trend both on the nalional level and regional level. This paper suggests that China＇s carbon emission does not follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve, there is no such mechanism that carbon emission will decrease automatically with the economic growth.

关 键 词：二氧化碳 环境库兹涅茨曲线 横截面相关 共同因素 

分 类 号：F120.3[经济管理—世界经济]