生猪价格波动规律的形成机理与调控对策  

Formation Mechanism and Countermeasures of Live Pig Price Fluctuation

作　　者：李志萌[1] 杨志诚[1] LI Zhi-meng YANG Zhi-cheng(Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences/Jiangxi Collaborative Innovation Center for Modem Agriculture De- velopment, Nanchang 330077, Chin)

机构地区：[1]江西省社会科学院/江西现代农业发展协同创新中心,江西南昌330077

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2016年第6期694-701,共8页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：农业部软科学研究课题(201611);国家社会科学基金项目(12BYJ111);江西现代农业及其优势产业可持续发展决策支持协同创新中心课题(XDNYA1501)

摘　　要：生猪是我国民众的主要肉类食品,生猪价格波动的"猪周期"易造成"猪贱伤农,肉贵伤民",并引发一系列主副食品价格的连锁反应。研究表明:生猪价格波动周期规律形成的机理和根本原因,是生猪供求关系及产能的形成到产品供给的滞后期,而宏观经济的基本面、供求关系的季节性变化、养猪成本的刚性上升、疫情风险、环境约束等因素都会影响价格波动的强度和持续时间,并据此提出缓减"猪周期"影响的政策措施。As Live pig is one of the primary meat products in China, the＂ pork cycle＂is likely to hurt ei- ther the consumers when the prices rise or the pig farmers when they fall and lead to chain reactions in the prices of staple and subsidiary foodstuff.This research put forward that the periodic fluctuations of live pig＇ s price are primarily caused by supply-demand relationship and the lag phase from producing capacity to prod- uct supplies while factors including macroeconomic fundamentals, the seasonal variation of supply-demand re- lationship, the rigid rise of pannage cost, disease risk and environmental constraint can also affect the strength and duration of price fluctuations.And measures are proposed to mitigate the impacts of the＂pork cycle＂.

关 键 词：猪周期 猪粮比价 政策措施 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]