用Apriori关联规则挖掘算法发现湖北电网雷击灾害的时空分布规律  

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Lightning Disasters of Power Lines in Hubei Province Using Data Mining Based on Apriori Association Rules

作　　者：黄俊杰[1,2] 谭波[3] 陈孝明[1,2] 陈江平[3] 阮羚[1,2] 冯莞舒 熊宇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院,武汉430077 [2]国家电网公司高压电器设备现场实验技术重点实验室,武汉430077 [3]武汉大学遥感信息工程学院,武汉430079

出　　处：《应用科学学报》2017年第1期31-41,共11页Journal of Applied Sciences

摘　　要：根据湖北电网多年雷击故障数据与雷击监测数据,探究雷电活动的日分布、月分布、高程分布、二维空间分布以及时空尺度结合的分布特征,发现湖北地区雷电活动频繁的月份主要为每年七八月间,在一天之中主要集中在15:00～18:00时段;地域上主要高发于湖北黄石、咸宁东部、武汉中部、宜昌中东部、襄樊南部及北部少数地区.用Apriori关联规则对多源融合雷击数据进行挖掘得到的结果表明,输电线周围天气满足以下条件时易发生雷击故障,需加强防范:日平均相对湿度大于80%,日平均气压高于1×10~5Pa,日平均水汽压在3×10~3～4×10~3Pa之间.利用大数据关联规则对输电线周围雷击进行数据挖掘和分析可对输电线路运营规划提供指导,为电网雷击灾害防范提供决策辅助.By using the data of lightning failure and monitoring of the past years provided by Hubei Grid,this paper studies the characteristics of daily and monthly distributions of lightning activity,as well as the elevation distribution and spatiotemporal distribution.The results show that lightning in Hubei Province mainly occurs in July and August,and between 15：00 and 18：00 during the day.The active regions include the east parts of Huangshi and Xianning,central Wuhan,central and eastern Yichang,and southern and part of northern Xiangfan.The multi-source lightning data are fused with an algorithm based on Apriori association rules.The research shows that lightning shield of the power lines may fail when daily average relative humidity is higher than 80%,daily average air pressure is higher than 1×10-5Pa,or daily average water vapor pressure is between 3×10-3Pa and4×10-3Pa.In these cases,therefore,measures should be taken to strengthen lightning prevention.Analyzing big data of lightning around power lines using the association rules can provide guidance to decision makers of power lines for disaster prevention.

关 键 词：电网 雷击 时空规律 关联规则挖掘 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]