基于CUACE系统沈阳地区春季空气质量预报的校验及修正  

Verification and modification to spring air quality forecasted by CUACE system in Shenyang

作　　者：李晓岚[1] 马雁军[1] 王扬锋[1] 赵胡笳[1] 刘洪利[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2016年第6期10-18,共9页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2014IAE-CMA-D;2015IAE-CMA06);辽宁省气象局博士科研专项(D201603);国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAC16B04);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406031)共同资助

摘　　要：本文基于CUACE系统,利用2015年4—5月沈阳市大气环境观测数据对沈阳地区春季空气质量的预报效果进行了校验和修正。结果表明:CUACE模式对6种污染物(PM10、PM2.5、NO2、O3、SO2和CO)质量浓度的预报值普遍小于观测值,对PM10浓度的预报存在严重低估。CUACE模式预报的沈阳地区春季日首要污染物多为PM2.5,而观测表明沈阳地区春季PM10和PM2.5为日首要污染物的日数相当。同时,CUACE模式预报的空气污染等级与实际观测的空气污染等级相比存在较高的等级偏差率。利用污染物观测浓度和预报浓度之间的线性拟合公式修正CUACE模式的预报结果,修正后首要污染物的预报结果与实际观测结果基本吻合,同时空气污染等级的预报准确率也明显提高,提高幅度为50.0%—80.0%。The performance of the CUACE system for spring air quality forecasts in Shenyang was verified and modified using the atmospheric environment observational data during April and May 2015. The results indicate that its forecasting for the mass concentrations of six pollutants,i, e. , PM10, PM25, NO2,03, SO2, and CO, is gen- erally smaller than the observed values, especially for the PM10 concentration that is significantly underestimated. The PM2.5 is daily primary pollutant in spring in Shenyang predicted by the CUACE system, while the observations show that there is comparable number of days when PM10 and PM2.5 both are the primary pollutants. Meanwhile, there is a large difference in the air pollution grades forecasted by the CUACE system and determined by the obser- vations. The results forecasted by the CUACE system are modified using a linear fitting formula based on the fore- casting and observed pollutants＇ concentrations. Through this modification, the forecasting results on the primary pollutants are principally consistent with the observed ones. Furthermore ,the forecasting accuracy on the air pollu- tion grade is improved by about 50% to 80%.

关 键 词：CUACE系统 空气质量 沙尘天气 首要污染物 偏差率 

分 类 号：P457.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]