基于熵值赋权法的大连地区雷电危险度可拓学评估  

Extenics evaluation of lightning risk degree in Dalian region using an entropy weighting method

作　　者：邹善勇[1] 王淑一[1] 邹皓羽 王洪祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连市气象局,辽宁大连116001 [2]民航大连空管站,辽宁大连116033

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2016年第6期184-189,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：大连市气象局科技项目(DLQK201519)资助

摘　　要：雷电危险度是反映雷电灾害危害程度的综合指标,本文利用大连地区ADTD型闪电定位系统监测资料、雷暴日观测资料、雷电灾害调查资料、1679个防雷被检单位的检测数据及地形地貌等资料,基于可拓学综合评估方法对大连地区雷电灾害危险度进行了评估研究。结果表明:从影响雷电危险度等级的雷电活动特征、防灾减灾能力及待评估现状3个方面选取了12个评估指标,基于现场调查建立了大连地区雷电危险度可拓学综合评估体系。利用关联函数和物元理论判定了雷电危险度的经典域与节域,基于熵值赋权法确定了各评估指标的权重系数,对大连地区雷电危险度进行了等级划分,并通过实例验证雷电危险度等级综合评估方法的合理性。lightning risk degree is an integrated index to reflect the harmful level of lightning disasters. Based on data from ADTD （Active Divectory Topology Diagrammer） lightning location system,observation of annual thun- derstorm days ,investigation of lightning disaster, detection of 1679 lightning protection units, topography and geo- morphology,the lighming risk degree in Dalian region was studied using an extenics comprehensive evaluation method. The result shows that the extenics comprehensive evaluation system of lightning risk degree is established based on field investigation data. There are 12 indexes in the evaluation system selected from 3 aspects which influ- ence the degree of lightning risk, i. e. lightning activity characteristics, disaster prevention and reduction capabilities and the present situation to be evaluated. The classical and segment fields of lightning risk degree are determined u- sing an associated function and the matter-element theory. In addition, the weighting coefficients of each evaluation index are defmed based on the entropy weighting theory. The lightning risk degree in Dalian region is divided. Through typical example validation, it indicates that this method established in this paper is reasonable and practical.

关 键 词：可拓学 熵值赋权法 雷电危险度 评估 

分 类 号：P427.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]