江苏省雷电灾害危险性定量化评估及区划  

Quantitative Assessment and Zoning of Lightning Hazard in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：陈广昌[1] 崔逊[1] 田心如[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省防雷中心,江苏南京210009 [2]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第1期32-35,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：江苏省科技厅项目(BE2013728)

摘　　要：为探讨雷电灾害定量化风险评估方法,从而为防灾减灾提供更加科学的决策依据,利用2013-2014年的无锡市三维闪电定位系统资料和详细的雷电灾情资料,经归一化处理后,采用相关法,选取了相关显著的闪电次数、总闪电强度和最大闪电强度作为雷电灾害的致灾因子。然后采用灰色关联分析法,定量化得到三个致灾因子权重,构建雷电灾害危险度指数模型。以雷电灾害危险度定量表征危险性。近似认为全省雷电灾害防御水平相当,把此模型应用于江苏全省,借助于GIS分析工具,进行了1 km×1 km分辨率的江苏省雷电灾害危险度区划。区划结果表明:雷电灾害危险度的空间分布特征与闪电密度分布特征相似,并且危险度高值区和闪电密度高值区的分布也较为一致,不同的是,危险度高值区较闪电密度高值区的范围有所扩大,危险度评估结果与实际贴合,又更加细化,依此方法及长年代雷电及灾情资料做出的雷电灾害风险评估,可更加科学、客观地指导雷电防灾减灾工作。In order to explore the quantitative risk assessment methods of lightning disaster, so then to provide more scientific decision-making basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, normalizing the Three-Dimensional lightning location system data and detailed lightning disaster data of Wuxi from 2013 to 2014, using the correlation method to choose three relevant significant indexes such as the number of lightning, the intensity of total lightning and the maximum intensity of lightning. By adopting the grey relational analysis, the weights of three disaster-cau- sing factors were calculated quantitatively, and the lightning disaster risk index model was constructed. The light- ning hazard was described quantitatively by endangers degree. Approximatively think that the prevention level of lightning disaster in Jiangsu province was nearly same, this model was applied in Jiangsu region, and the Jiangsu province was divided into many grids of 1 km x 1 km resolution with the help of GIS analysis tool. Different grid colors represent different endangers degrees of lightning disaster. The zonation results showed that the spatial distri- bution characteristics of lightning endangers degree were similar with the lightning density, and the high degree area was also more consistent with the high value area of lightning density, the difference was that the high endangers degree area range was greater than the high value area of lightning density, the evaluation results were more de- tailed and consistent with the fact, the assessment of lightning disaster risk using these methods and long-years lightning and disaster information can be more scientific and objective for lightning disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 危险性 灰色关联度 定量 区划 江苏 

分 类 号：P463.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]