中国土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调发展的实证研究——基于协调发展模型  

Empirical Research on the Coordinated Development between Land Urbanization and Population Urbanization in China——Based on the Coordinated Development Model

作　　者：王兴芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年第1期102-106,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(11&ZD146);辽宁省社科规划基金项目(L16BJL013);辽宁省教育厅哲学社会科学重大基础理论项目(Zw2013003)

摘　　要：文章基于中国1994-2014年度数据,通过复合指标法选取评价指标,用极差标准化法对原始数据进行标准化处理,用熵值法确定指标权重,构建协调发展模型测算中国土地城镇化与人口城镇化指数、协调度、发展度和协调发展度。测度结果表明:生活水平和城镇规模分别是人口城镇化与土地城镇化的主要贡献因素。从2001年开始,土地城镇化速度明显快于人口城镇化,2005年达到极值点。2009-2010年是中国土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调发展的分界年。十年内出现的两个"转变"表明近十年来我国土地城镇化速度过快。为此,研究建议应在提高人口城镇化水平和质量的同时,适度放缓土地城镇化的步伐以维持二者的协调发展。Based on China＇s annual data during 1994-2014, used Composite Index Method to select evaluation indexes. Adopted Range Normalization Method to standardize original data, and then employed Entropy Method to determine index weight. Applied Coordinated Development Model to calculate indexes of land urbanization and population urbanization, coordination degree, development degree and coordinated development degree. Results show that： the living standard and urban scale are respectively the main contribution factors of population urbanization and land urbanization. The speed of land urbanization started being faster obviously than population urbanization in 2001, peaked in 2005. Dividing year of the coordinated development between land urbanization and population urbanization in China is 2009 or 2010. Two ＂turns＂ within ten years indicate that increment speed of land urbanization is too fast. Our country should improve the levels and qualities of population urbanization at the same time should slowdown moderately the pace of land urbanization in order to maintain the coordinated development between them.

关 键 词：土地城镇化 人口城镇化 协调发展模型 土地规模 产业结构 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]