城市扩张生态效应预测对输入数据的敏感性研究  

Research on the Sensitivity of Forecasting Ecological Effect of Urban Growth to Input Data

作　　者：蔡凌雁 王丽妍[1,2] 伍阳[1,2] 李飞雪[1,2] 陈东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,南京210023

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2017年第1期272-278,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40901184);国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(201411014-3)

摘　　要：城市扩张模型被广泛应用于多种生态保护情景下的城市扩张预测,然而不同的输入数据会导致模型预测的不确定性,从而影响城市的规划管理和生态保护决策。以常州市市区为研究区,通过土地利用变更数据和遥感影像数据获取两种城市用地图层作为SLEUTH模型的输入数据,对比研究了城市范围的差异对生态效应预测结果的影响。结果表明:(1)两种城市输入层得到的模型校准精度不同。(2)不同城市输入图层对城市扩张预测结果产生影响,城市扩张数量和年平均增长率存在明显差异。(3)生态效应预测结果对城市输入图层的敏感性较强,两种城市图层包含的土地利用类型和最小制图单元不同,建模者应根据具体研究目标和要求,选择合适的模型输入数据,以获取相对准确的生态保护结论。The urban growth model is widely used in urban expansion prediction in many kinds of ecological protection scenarios. However, different input data will lead to the uncertainty of the model, which will affect the city planning management and ecological protection decision. In this study, Changzhou dowe.town was taken as the research example, and two kinds of urban layers were selected as the input data of SLEUTH model. Through the contrast experiment, we examined the influence of different urban ranges on the ecological effect prediction. The results show that： （1） two urban input layers lead to different model calibration accuracies; （2） urban expansion prediction results differ from each other, urban expansion quantity and average annual growth rate are diverse; （3） prediction results of ecological effect are sensitive to the urban input layers, two kinds of urban layers contain different land use types and the smallest mapping units; the model developer should select the appropriate model input data according to the specific research objectives and requirements in order to obtain relatively accurate conclusions of the ecological protection.

关 键 词：城市扩张模型 生态效应 输入数据 敏感性 常州市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济] F301.2