流动与固化:我国代际职业地位传递分析  

Mobility or Stability: A Transmission Analysis of the Intergenerational Occupational Status in China

作　　者：丁颖[1] 王存同[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国教育财政科学研究所,北京100871 [2]中央财经大学社会与心理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《当代财经》2017年第2期3-11,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：利用CFPS 2010年数据,着重检验了父母职业地位对子女职业的直接影响。在数据处理方面,为了得到系数及标准误的无偏估计,对于抽样数据的缺失值,采用了贝叶斯多重插值法对因变量与自变量进行填补。在统计模型选取方面,利用OLS、工具变量法及两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)对估计偏倚进行校正。为了选择最优权重矩阵,采用广义矩估计(GMM)及迭代矩估计(IGMM)来检验各因素特别是父亲职业对子女职业效应的直接影响及地区差异。为了避免样本选择带来的估计偏倚,引入Heckman选择模型对工具变量法及广义矩估计等模型的估计结果进行稳健性检验。研究发现父辈职业地位高的,其子女的职业地位也相应高,这从程序上说明我国阶层固化作用的存在。通过Heckman选择模型,研究还新发现父亲职业地位对子女选择某职业与否以及对子女现有职业的发展都有显著影响。此外,这种影响也表现为地域差异,经济水平越发达或文化越开放,父亲职业的影响力就越强;但个体受教育程度是影响其职业地位的主导因素。By making use of the 2010 data of CFPS, this paper specially tests the direct impact of parental occupation status on children＇s occupation choices. As for the data process, in order to obtain unbiased estimates of coefficients and standard errors, it adopts the Bayesian multiple interpolation method to fill in the dependent variable and the independent variable for the missing values of the sampling data. As for the choosing of statistic model, it applies OLS, the instrumental variable method and 2SLS to rectify the bias in the estimation. In order to select the optimal weight matrix,it employs GMM and IGMM to test the direct impact of each factor, especially fathers＇ occupation,on the children＇s occupation choices and the regional differences. In order to avoid the estimation bias from the sample selection, it introduces the Heckman selection model to verify the robustness of the estimation results of the instrumental variable method, GMM and other models. The results reveal that if the father generation holds higher occupational status, the children＇s occupation status will be correspondingly higher, which indicates that there exists class solidification in China in term of procedure. Through the Heckman selection model, it is also found that fathers＇ occupational status have a significant impact on their children＇s occupation choices and the development of the children＇s existing occupations. In addition, this impact also manifests regional differences, the more developed the economic level or the more opened the cultural level, the stronger the fathers＇ occupational impact will be. However, the individual education level is the dominant factor influencing their occupational status.

关 键 词：职业地位 代际间传递 教育水平 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]