“十三五”时期我国地方政府性债务风险的预测与监控  

Forecast and Monitoring on China's Local Government Debt Risk during the 13th Five-Year Period

作　　者：张平[1] 周全林[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院,天津300222 [2]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2017年第2期22-30,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国‘影子银行’风险和地方政府财政风险间的交叉传染机制及其监控政策研究"(14CJY063)

摘　　要："十三五"时期,我国经济发展进入了新常态。在这一时期,地方政府财政收支活动将面临更大压力。从多个角度分析发现,我国地方政府性债务风险虽总体可控,但地方政府性债务对全国政府性债务贡献过大,地方债规模的上升空间几近消失,个别省份债务风险已进入预警区间。通过对"十三五"时期地方政府性偿债资金来源和偿债成本的预测,不难看出,我国地方政府性债务将有可能面临更大偿债压力,风险有可能持续升高。因此,监控地方政府性债务风险、缓解债务压力,应从两方面着手:一方面要提高债务管理水平,加快完善地方自主发债模式、推进信用评价和破产制度、健全债务风险预警机制;另一方面要化解债务存量,着力推进融资平台公司市场化转型、完善公私合作模式。China＇s economic development has entered the new normal economy during ＂the 13 th five-year period＂, during which local government activities of financial revenue and expenditure are faced with more challenges. It can be seen from a multi-angle analysis that although China＇s local government debt risks are generally under control, yet it contributes too much to the national government debt, there is almost no more space for local government debt to rise. Even the debt risks in some provinces have entered the early-warning interval. Through the forecast for the local governments fund sources to pay the debt and the debt service cost during the 13 th five-year period, it can be easily seen that China＇s local government debts may be faced with greater debt repaying pressure,and the risks will be increased continuously. Therefore, the task of controlling the debt risks and relieving the debt pressures should be carried out from the following two aspects： one is to enhance debt management ability, quicken the improvement of local autonomous bond issuing modes, promote the credit evaluation and bankruptcy system, and improve the debt risk warning mechanism; the other is to dissolve the stock of debts, push forward the market-oriented transformation of local financing platform, and improve the public-private partnership modes.

关 键 词：地方政府性债务 债务风险 风险监控 “十三五”时期 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]