江苏省空气质量预报与实测结果比对研究  

Comparative Study between Air Quality Forecast and Actual Measurement in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：陆维青 江峰琴[1] 刘丽霞[1] 王爱平[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省环境监测中心,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2017年第1期10-14,共5页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：江苏省环境监测科研基金资助项目(1202;1306)

摘　　要：选取2015年1—8月江苏地区NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem 4个模式预报结果与实测值进行比对分析,结果表明,标准化分数偏差(MFB)为-0.066 5~0.201 1,标准化分数误差(MFE)最大值为0.381 8,均在理想范围内,其中CAMx预报效果相对较好,WRF-Chem有一定误差。4个模式相比,NAQPMS对于PM_(10)的模拟性能较好,各模式对PM_(2.5)模拟性能相近,CMAQ和CAMx对O_3模拟较好,WRF-Chem对CO模拟较好,各模式对SO_2和NO_2的模拟都需进一步优化。In this study,we compared the results from 4 model forecasts,including NAQPMS,CMAQ,CAMx,and WRF-Chem,from January to August in 2015 in Jiangsu area with actual observation data. It was found that the mean fractional bias was between- 0. 066 5 and 0. 201 1 and the maximum value of mean fractional error was 0. 381 8. Both of them were in the ideal range. Of the four forecast models,CAMx predicted relatively better,and WRF-Chem was somewhat erroneous in the prediction. NAQPMS simulated better for PM10,all of the four models simulated similar for PM（2. 5）,CMAQ and CAMx simulated better for O3,and WRF-Chem simulated better for CO. These forecasting models need further optimization for the simulation of SO2 and NO2.

关 键 词：江苏 空气质量 数值预报 模式检验 

分 类 号：X520[环境科学与工程—环境工程]