政府债务、财政赤字及其宏观经济效应——基于债务软约束视角分析  

Government Debts, Fiscal Deficits and their Macroeconomic Effects:Analysis Based on Soft Constraints of Debt

作　　者：缪小林[1] 向莉[2] 张蓉[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学公共政策研究中心 [2]云南财经大学财政与公共管理学院

出　　处：《财政科学》2017年第1期101-117,共17页Fiscal Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"公共财政安全监测预警机制研究"(12JZD031);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"地方政府债务风险动因挖掘与制度修正研究:基于权责时空分离下的责任转移预期模型"(71303207);国家自然科学基金面上项目"绩效理念下的现代财政预算管理体系研究:利益博弈;预算标准与信息公开"(71673235)

摘　　要：本文基于债务行为主体和债务约束主体的博弈关系,从理论上揭示政府债务软约束机制及其福利效应。在此基础上,采用中国1986-2013年的宏观数据检验政府债务软约束及其财政赤字的宏观经济效应。实证结果显示:(1)除国家外债外,政府债务与财政赤字间关系呈现长期发散,政府债务外生于财政赤字,并对财政赤字产生倒逼作用,具体路径为加速财政支出扩张和抑制财政增收,中国政府债务软约束得到证实。(2)从经济增长效应看,财政赤字不具有长期经济增长效应,唯有的短期经济增长效应还受到政府债务的抑制。(3)从劳动就业效应看,长期中政府债务加剧财政赤字的失业代价,短期中财政赤字虽然能促进劳动就业,但外生性的政府债务对其产生抑制作用。(4)就通货膨胀效应看,长期中政府债务加剧财政赤字对通胀的抑制,短期中政府债务抑制财政赤字对通胀的促进作用,但误差修正项的不显著表明政府债务、财政赤字与通货膨胀的关系难以从短期向长期收敛。This article is based on the game relationship between the subject of debt behavior and the subject of debt restraint, and theoretically reveals the soft constraint mechanism of government debt and its welfare effect.On the basis of this, it uses the macro data from 1986 to 2013 in China to examine the soft constraints of gov-ernment debt and the macroeconomic effects of fiscal deficit. Empirical results show that： （1） In addition to the country？ s external debt, the relationship between government debt and fiscal deficit presents a long-term diver-gence, government debt which has a reciprocating effect on the fiscal deficit is exogenous to the fiscal deficit , whichis the specific path to accelerate the expansion of fiscal expenditure and curb fiscal revenue. China？ s gov-ernment debt soft constraints has been confirmed. （2） From the perspective of economic growth effect, the fiscal deficit does not have a long-term economic growth effect, and the short-term economic growth effect is the only one restrained by government debt. （3） From the perspective of labor and employment effects, government debt increases the unemployment cost of fiscal deficit in the long term. In the short term, although the fiscal deficit can promote labor employment, the external government debt has an inhibitory effect on employment. （4）Form the perspective of inflation effects, the government debt exacerbates the inhibitory effect on inflation which is caused by the fiscal deficit in the long term, and the government debt inhibits the promotable effect on inflation which is caused by the fiscal deficit in the short term. However, the error correction term is not significant, indi-cating that the relationship between government debt, fiscal deficit and inflation is difficult to converge from short-term to long-term.

关 键 词：债务软约束 政府债务 财政赤字 宏观经济效应 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]