财政政策如何影响产业结构升级——基于广东省21个地市级的动态面板数据的实证分析  

How does Fiscal Policy Affect the Upgrading of Industrial Structure?——Based on an Empirical Study of Dynamic Panel Data of 21 Chinese Cities in Guangdong Province

作　　者：白积洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市政府采购中心

出　　处：《财政科学》2017年第1期125-141,共17页Fiscal Science

基　　金：广东省财政厅立项课题"新常态下财政政策支持产业转型升级机制研究"(课题编号:Z201608)成果之一

摘　　要：本文利用广东省21个地级市2000-2015年的面板数据构建动态面板GMM模型和面板门槛模型对财政政策支持产业转型升级的影响效应进行了分析。研究发现:财政收入、财政支出对广东的产业结构升级具有非线性影响效应,并且基本上是起着促进作用的。在不同的财政收入和财政支出水平上,财政收入和财政支出对产业结构升级的促进作用不同,具体表现为先上升后下降的倒"U"型发展;而且从经济发展水平和产业层次划分的不同区域来看,财政收入和财政支出对产业结构升级的促进作用程度也不同。因此,必须注重财政支出结构的优化以及税收制度的合理设计,发挥财政政策对产业结构升级的促进作用。The paper analyzes the effect of fiscal policy on promoting industrial structure upgrading using 2000-2015 panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong province by structuring the dynamic panel GMM model and panel threshold model. The study has found that fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure have a nonlinear effect on industrial structure upgrading in Guangdong, and also play a promoting role basically. The different levels of fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure have different effect on industrial structure upgrading which shows the characteristics of the inverted “U” development？ Furthermore, the fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure have some different effects on industrial structure upgrading in the different economic regions. Therefore, there must be special concerns to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and design a reasonable tax system to promote the industrial structure upgrading.

关 键 词：财政政策 产业结构升级 面板GMM模型 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]