基于对数灰关联度及IOWGA算子的组合预测方法及应用  

Based on Combined Forecasting Methods and Application of Gray Association and IOWHA Operators

作　　者：胡文权[1] 葛文[1] 唐旭[2] 徐长虹[1] 崔逍[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波市测绘设计研究院,浙江宁波315402 [2]宁波诺丁汉大学,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《城市勘测》2017年第1期129-133,共5页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：宁波市自然科学基金(2015A610116)

摘　　要：针对传统组合模型建模准则单一、权值固定不变的缺陷,引用最优加权组合建模理论,在诱导有序加权几何平均(IOWGA)算子的基础上,结合对数灰关联度,研究了一种改进的IOWGA算子的组合模型。其核心思想是以对数灰关联度为准则,基于单一模型各时刻拟合、预测的精度高低进行有序赋权。文中对优性组合的判定方法及组合模型预测效果评价准则亦进行了研究。将组合模型应用到宁波市某路基沉降预测中,取得了良好的效果,提高了预测精度,验证了模型的有效性。The traditional combination of modeling guidelines for single weights fixed defects,citing the optimal weighted combination of theoretical modeling,the induced ordered weighted geometric mean( IOWGA) operator based on the combination of gray association study a combination of an improved model IOWGA operator. Its core idea is based on gray association guidelines,each time fitting based on a single model,the level of accuracy of prediction orderly empowerment. Excellent article on composition and method for determining the effect of a combination of model predictive evaluation criteria also studied. The combined model is applied to Ningbo City,a subgrade settlement prediction,and achieved good results,to improve the prediction accuracy,to verify the validity of the model.

关 键 词：对数灰关联度 IOWGA算子 组合模型 沉降预测 

分 类 号：O221[理学—运筹学与控制论] TU196[理学—数学]