三工河流域平原区蒸发量变化特征及影响因素  

Changes of evaporation and impact factors in the plain region in Sangong River Basin

作　　者：陈伏龙[1,2] 冯平[1] 吴泽斌[3] CHEN Fu-long FENG Ping WU Ze-bin(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China College of Water Conservancy ＆ Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003 ,Xinjiang, China General Office of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053, China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 [3]水利部办公厅,北京100053

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2017年第1期45-53,共9页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51069011);水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室开放基金(HESS-1405)资助

摘　　要：采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验等方法,分析了三工河流域平原区1981-2012年蒸发量变化特征及主要影响因子,并通过多元相关模型定量给出了各气象因子对蒸发量变化的贡献程度。结果表明:三工河流域平原区近32 a蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,春夏秋冬四季的蒸发量也呈显著减少的趋势。春季和夏季蒸发量的大幅减少对年蒸发量减少的贡献率较大,冬季蒸发量在1985年和1989年发生突变。影响蒸发量的因子中,降水、日照时数、相对湿度、风速和气压均呈下降趋势,其中日照时数、相对湿度和风速下降趋势显著,而气温上升趋势明显。以1981-1990年为基准期,1991-2000年风速和日照时数减少对蒸发量减少的贡献率分别为85.27%、20.70%,其它影响因素对蒸发量减少的贡献率为-5.97%;而2001-2012年风速和日照时数的减少对蒸发量减少的贡献率分别为52.32%和39.91%,其它影响因素的贡献率为7.77%。For deep understanding the influence of climate change on water circulation in arid areas as well as providing reference and basis for the evaluation of dry wet status and the optimal allocations of water resources,based on the daily meteorological data in Fukang station,Fukang County,Xinjiang,China during 1981-2012,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of evaporation and its factors（precipitation,temperature,sunshine duration,relative humidity,wind speed and air pressure）in the plain region of Sangonghe River basin in recent 32 years. Linear trend estimation,moving average,Mann-Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis were used and the multiple correlation model was built,through which the contribution degrees of meteorological factors were shown. The results indicate that the annual evaporation in recent 32 years decreased significantly,the average value was 1 605 mm with a decent speed of 126.62 mm per 10 years. The evaporation in 1990 s decreased about 3.51% of that in 1980s;and in 2000 s,it increased by 28.46% of that in 1990 s. The evaporation in four seasons all showed significant descending trend. In spring,summer and autumn,the variation trends were basically consistent while the evaporation in winter climbed up first and then declined. The sharp decrease of spring and summer evaporation contributed greatly to the decline of annual evaporation and accounted for 80.54%. The break points of winter evaporation were in 1985 and 1989. Of all the factors,precipitation,sunshine duration,relative humidity,wind speed and air pressure all showed a statistically significant decreasing trend while the temperature increased significantly. Take 1981-1990 as a reference period,the contribution of wind speed and sunshine duration during 1991-2000 to the decrease of evaporation were 85.27% and 20.70%,respectively;the sum of other factors was-5.97%. The contribution of wind speed,sunshine duration and other factors during2001-2012 were 52.32%,39.91% and 7.77%,respectively. It can be seen that win

关 键 词：三工河流域 蒸发量 多元统计分析 贡献率 

分 类 号：P426.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]