基于基准态的断路器可靠性分析方法  

Reliability Analysis Method of Circuit Breaker Based on Benchmark

作　　者：黄荣辉 李穆[2] 吕启深 

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,深圳518001 [2]国网电力科学研究院武汉南瑞有限责任公司,武汉430074

出　　处：《电气工程学报》2017年第1期33-39,共7页Journal of Electrical Engineering

摘　　要：利用基准态的概念,针对高压断路器的可靠性分析,提出了一套完整的理论方法。首先,根据基准态建立过程中选取的关键状态量,开展关键状态量分析技术,深入分析关键状态量性能的好坏。并引入电网强度、设备强度和设备老化程度3个维度的性能,评判设备分性能状况,得到设备基准态值。接着,基准态预测过程作为基准态分析的延伸,以经典统计学理论获取预测模型,为设备基准态发展趋势提供参考。最后,可靠性分析则是基准态分析的最终目的和落脚点,利用经典可靠性理论,构建可靠度模型,绘制设备可靠性曲线。从曲线中可方便获取设备当前及未来的可靠度,为用户的运维及检修工作提供决策支持。In this paper, a complete set of theoretical method is proposed for the reliability analysis of high voltage circuit breakers based on the concept of benchmark, First of all, the key state variables in the process of establishing the benchmark are used to analysis its quality performance. And the performance of the three dimensions is introduced to evaluation of the performance of the device to get the benchmark value of the device, which is the strength of the power grid strength, the equipment strength and the equipment aging degree. Then, the benchmark prediction process is extended as a benchmark analysis, to obtain the forecast model from the classical statistical theory, and to provide a reference for the development trend of the equipment. Finally, the reliability analysis is the ultimate goal and the end result of the benchmark analysis. Using the classical reliability theory to construct the reliability model, the reliability curve of the equipment is drawn. From the curve can be convenient to obtain the current and future reliability of the equipment, and can provide decision support for the operation and maintenance work of the user.

关 键 词：状态量 基准态 预测 可靠性 

分 类 号：TM63[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]