区域水资源可持续发展能力的模糊可变评价  

Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Nature-Society Binary Pattern and Fuzzy Variable Method

作　　者：冯峰[1,2] 靳晓颖[1] 谢秋晧 

机构地区：[1]黄河水利职业技术学院小流域水利河南省高校工程技术研究中心,河南开封475004 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [3]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《人民黄河》2017年第3期45-50,54,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-河南省人才培养联合基金资助项目(U1304503);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(17A570007);开封市2016年科技攻关计划项目(1602019)

摘　　要：针对区域水资源可持续发展能力的评价问题,基于"自然-社会"二元模式,识别出了自然、社会和水资源3个因素的影响因子,构造了第一层由3个因素、第二层由21个指标组成的多层次评价指标体系,构建了基于相对差异函数的模糊可变评价模型。以开封市为研究实例进行了评价,结果显示:2012年兰考县和通许县的水资源可持续发展能力为Ⅱ级(较强),其他县(区)的水资源可持续发展能力为Ⅲ级(中等)。通过实例验证,表明该评价模型具有较好的适用性和合理性,指标的代表性和覆盖性较好,特别是针对较小的评价区域,能够有效地识别出指标差异,获得精准的评价等级。In view of the regional water resources carrving capacity evaluation, at first, the paper identified the influence of natural factors, society factors and water factor based on nature-society binary pattern; and then built multilevel evaluation index system, the first layer con-sisted of three subsystems and the second layer composed of 21 indicators; at last, established an evaluation model of fuzzy variable. It was e-valuated by taking Kaifeng City as a case study. The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Lankao County and Tongxu County is grade Ⅱ （stronger） and other counties are grade Ⅲ （medium）. Through the example, it has shown that the evaluation model has good applicability and rationality, especially for the evaluation of smaller areas. It can identify index differences effectively and obtains accu-rate evaluation results.

关 键 词：水资源 可持续发展 “自然-社会”二元模式 模糊可变 开封市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]