基于评价指数的三江平原水安全系统预警研究  

Sanjiang Plain Water Safety Warning Research System Based on Evaluation Index

作　　者：任永泰[1] 卢静[2] 付强[3] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《人民黄河》2017年第3期75-80,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(E201321);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179032)

摘　　要：以三江平原建三江地区水安全评价指数为警情指标,基于区域水安全系统现状,利用时差相关分析法初步选择34个水安全系统预警指标,运用二次筛选法对指标的有效性进行检验,得出23个有效预警指标,结合水安全系统的复杂适应性构建区域水安全系统预警指标体系,以熵权法确定指标权重,用综合模拟法确定指标临界值,最终设计了建三江地区的水安全预警系统。结果表明:建三江地区预警指数呈下降趋势,2002—2003年水安全预警指数处于黄灯区(C级);2004—2011年水安全预警指数均处于合格状态,有向优良状态逐步发展的趋势,地域水安全现状向好的方向发展,指标间的机制、特性关系由波动状态向更为协调的方向发展。该系统可以给出区域水安全系统的预警指数及变化趋势,从而达到预警目的。In this paper, index of Sanjiang Plain of Jiansanjiang area water security was used as an alarm indicator, based on current situa-tion of regional water security system, 34 alarm indicators of water security system were selected with correlation analysis of time difference method. Quadratic sieve method was used to analyze the validity of 34 indicators from which 23 effective alarm indicators were chosen. An a-larm indicator system of regional water security system was built based on the complex adaptive mechanism of water security system. During the building, the index weight was determined by entropy method and the critical value was determined with an integrated simulation and the alarm indicator system was eventually completed. The results show that the score of alarm situation of jiansanjiang is decline and the index of water security in the period of 2002-2003 is in yellow light zone （grade C）; early warning indexes in the years from 2004 to 2011 are in safety zone with an increasing trend with regional water security situation becoming better and mechanism of indicators and relationship be-tween them is on a more coordinated way rather than a fluctuant one. The system is able to obtain the alarm index and the trend of regional water security system and ensure the alarming of system.

关 键 词：水安全 预警 时差相关分析 指标体系 预警信号灯 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]