基于ASTFA-ELM的风电功率爬坡预测  

Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Research Based on ASTFA-ELM

作　　者：黄麒元 刘娇娇[2] 王致杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院电气学院,上海201306 [2]上海电气集团股份有限公司中央研究院,上海201100

出　　处：《电器与能效管理技术》2017年第3期54-59,共6页Electrical & Energy Management Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477099;11304200)

摘　　要：在风电功率爬坡的理论基础上,阐述了研究风电功率爬坡的定义和原理,提出了一种ASTFA-ELM的风电功率爬坡组合预测方法,并结合数值天气预报的气象因素和历史爬坡量数据建立了组合预测模型,通过对风电功率爬坡事件特性分析,对爬坡情况进行有效的预测,最后以风电场的实际历史数据为实例,仿真验证了所提方法的有效性,可以提高预测精度。Based on the theory of wind power ramp,the wind power ramp definition and principle were expounded.The ASTFA-ELM combined wind power ramp forecast algorithm was put forward and with the numerical weather predict information and history ramp data,the combined forecasting model is established.Finally,with the actual historical data of the wind farm as an example,the model effectiveness was verified by the simulation and it can improve the prediction accruacy.

关 键 词：风电功率爬坡 爬坡预测 自适应稀疏时频分析 极限学习机 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]