多种数值预报及其释用产品在宁夏天气预报业务中的检验评估  

Verification of Numerical Forecast and Its Application Products in Weather Forecast in Ningxia

作　　者：张成军[1,2,3] 纪晓玲[1,2,3] 马金仁[1,3] 杨洋[1] 陈迪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏气象台,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《干旱气象》2017年第1期148-156,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：宁夏自治区科技惠民项目"极端灾害性天气预测预警服务系统建设与应用";宁夏自治区科技支撑计划(2015KJHM30);宁夏气象局科研项目"宁夏天气预报质量综合检验评估技术体系";中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-081)共同资助

摘　　要：为提高宁夏气象要素预报的准确率,检验了11类数值预报及其释用产品不同时效的准确率。统计发现:温度预报方面,宁夏气象台的释用产品中,排名靠前的,其准确率均优于中央台指导,最高温度尤其明显,中央台指导的最高温度准确率在11种参考产品中仅排7~9名;最好的宁夏最高温度释用产品,在48 h及以后,比宁夏预报员的准确率还要高,但宁夏预报员的最低温度准确率均略高于各类参考产品;降水预报方面,宁夏预报员的24—168 h晴雨和24—72 h一般性降水的准确率最高,中央台指导的晴雨准确率远高于其他参考产品,一般性降水准确率短期内WRF 9 km和中央台最优,中雨量级准确率则EC插值和T639插值有优势;所有参考产品的准确率均存在明显的季节变化,一年中变化幅度在10%~30%之间。For improving the prediction accuracy of meteorological elements in Ningxia, the 11 kinds of reference products had been verified, and some conclusions were found. In terms of temperature accuracy, the top accuracy rate of Ningxia,s MOS products and integrated products was higher than that of the Central Meteorological Observatory, especially for maximum temperature, and the accuracy of maximum temperature forecasted by the Central Meteorological Observatory ranked seventh to ninth only in all reference products. The best accuracy of Ningxia,s maximum temperature products was higher than that of forecasters,after 48 hours and beyond, but the accuracy of forecasters, minimum temperature was slightly higher than those of reference products. In terms of precipitation accuracy, the forecaster, s accuracy of shine （rain） for 24 - 168 hours and general precipitation for 24 -72 hours was highest. The forecasted accuracy of shine （rain） from the Central Meteorological Observatory was far higher than those of other reference products. For short - term, the most optimal products for the general precipitation prediction were from WRF 9 km and the Central Meteorological Observatory, and the best products for moderate rain were EC interpolation and T639 interpolation. There was significant seasonal variation for the accuracy of each reference product, and the annual change ranged from 10% to 30% .

关 键 词：要素预报 检验 数值预报 MOS 集成预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]