浅谈捕获-再捕获法在药品不良反应发生率估计中的应用研究  

Application of Capture-recapture in the Assessment for the Incidence of Adverse Drug Reactions

作　　者：韩飞[1] 王国华[1] 刘慧兰[1] 李小黎[1] 李兵[2] 刘骏[2] 王忠[2] 鲁姝[1] 荆志伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京中医药大学第三附属医院,北京100029 [2]中国中医科学院临床基础研究所,北京100700

出　　处：《中国药物警戒》2017年第2期102-104,共3页Chinese Journal of Pharmacovigilance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81473514):中药注射剂不良反应随机森林信号模型建立及免疫毒理学评价方法研究

摘　　要：目的探讨捕获-再捕获(capture-recapture,CR)法在药品不良反应(adverse drug reaction,ADR)发生率估计中的应用,更准确地监测ADR发生率,为进一步促进我国药品不良反应监测工作提供思路和参考。方法运用数理统计学方法阐述CR法的原理、应用条件,并通过案例分析其在ADR发生率估计中的作用及存在问题。结果与结论CR法适合在多个大样本监测到不同ADR发生率的基础上,对ADR总数及发生率进行估计,能进一步明确ADR发生率,为监测不良反应发生率提供实效性方法,值得在不良反应监测研究中推广应用。Objective To discuss the application of capture-recapture （ CR） method in the assessment for the incidence of ADR, and get a more accurate monitoring of the incidence of ADR, in order to provide thought and references for the promotion of ADR monitoring in China. Methods Using the mathematical statistics method to review the principle, and application condition of CR method, and through the case- analysis,it is revealed the role of CR method in the incidence of ADR estimation and some problems about CR method. Results ＆ Conclusion CR method is appropriate for many big databases which can monitor different incidence of ADR.lt is the effective method that can estimate the total incidence of ADR and make sure of the incidence of adverse reactions, which is worthy of applying in the research of ADR monitoring.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获法 药品不良反应 发生率 

分 类 号：R95[医药卫生—药学]