基于广义网络分析和云模型的潜艇威胁风险评估  

Influence and Risk Assessment of Submarine Based on Generalized Analytic Network Process and the Cloud Model

作　　者：宋晨阳[1] 张韧[1,2] 刘科峰[1] 陈符森 鲍森亮 徐淦 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心 [3]解放军91431部队 [4]东海舰队气象水文中心

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2017年第1期57-61,69,共6页Command Control & Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41276088)

摘　　要：针对全球气候变化背景下岛礁主权争端变化的复杂性和不确定性,研究探讨了海上可能面临的敌潜艇威胁。针对风险评估建模时难以有效评判社会因素、自然因素的困难,提出了广义网络分析法和云模型结合的研究思想,构建了气候变化背景下潜艇威胁风险评估模型,实现了潜艇威胁的量化评估,旨在为反潜体系建设规划提供决策依据。Based on complexity and uncertainty of natural environmental changes Islands Sovereignty Dispute in the background of global climate change,we explore the risks of submarine.Confronting with sophisticated social and natural factors for effective evaluation,this paper puts forward a new method which combines Generalized Analytic Network Process and The Cloud Model,and design a climate change risk assessment model in order to provide submarine in face of climate change.Moreover,the methods and approaches of analysis will provide technical references for the planning and construction of antisubmarine system.

关 键 词：广义网络分析 云模型 气候变化 潜艇 风险评估 

分 类 号：TJ67[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] E917[军事]