基于海温遥相关的渤黄海冬季气温与海冰预测方法  

Prediction method of air temperature and sea ice in winter in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea based on teleconnection

作　　者：焦艳[1,2] 曹丛华[1,2] 黎舸[1,2] 袁本坤[1,2] 姜雯斐 于清溪[3] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局北海预报中心,山东青岛266061 [2]山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室,山东青岛266061 [3]国家海洋局北海信息中心,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋预报》2017年第1期19-24,共6页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(201504;201505);国家海洋局北海分局海洋科技项目(2015B08);国家重点研发计划"海洋环境安全保障"重点专项(2016YFC1402000)

摘　　要：选取渤黄海历史冰情和气温资料、全球海温资料,分析了1971—2015年渤黄海冬季气温和冰情的变化特征。基于遥相关分析法,选取影响渤黄海冬季气温的前期海温关键区,建立了渤黄海冬季气温和冰级的预测模型。结果表明:渤黄海气温和冰情具有明显的年际和年代际变化,二者呈负相关关系;根据全球海温遥相关型,冰季前期的夏季海温对渤黄海冬季气温影响明显,海温关键区为赤道以北低纬度中东太平洋海域、北太平洋白令海西南海域、西南印度洋和澳大利亚东南沿岸海域。由此建立的预测模型与实际观测值具有较好的一致性。The historical data of air temperature （AT） from NCEP/NCAR and sea ice grades （SI） from SOA was used to analyze the variation characteristics of AT and SI in winter during 1971--2015 in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The prediction model of AT and SI was set up based on the method of teleconnection by selecting SST key areas which have obviously influence on the temperature in winter in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. Results showed that, both AT and SI had interannual and interdecadal variations, and they had significant negative correlations with each other. According to the teleconnection, SST anomalies in the Middle East Pacific Ocean, the southwest of the Bering Sea, the southwest of Indian Ocean and the coastal area of southeast Australia were strong precursor signals of AT in winter in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The analyses also showed that there was a good corresponding relationship between AT from predicted model and the observation.

关 键 词：渤黄海 海冰 冬季气温 海温 遥相关 多元回归 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]