均匀设计在地裂缝参数敏感性分析中的应用  

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Ground Fissures Based on Uniform Design

作　　者：段扬[1] 杨倩[2] 陈孜[1] 胡伏生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]中航勘察设计研究院有限公司,北京100098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2017年第1期149-152,204,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：地质矿产调查评价专项项目(12120113004800)

摘　　要：为研究参数不确定性对于地裂缝扩张及发展的影响,利用FLAC^(3D)建模,模拟在地裂缝两侧土体不同时抽取地下水情况下地裂缝变化情况。以地裂缝两侧水平位移、垂直位移、地裂缝活动量为参数敏感性分析的目标,并通过均匀设计法对断裂粘聚力、断裂内摩擦角等5个参数进行了多次交叉运算,快速准确地判断了参数敏感度大小。研究表明,参数变化对地裂缝活动量及上盘垂直位移影响较大;内摩擦角为影响地裂缝最敏感的因素。研究结果为今后地裂缝的治理提供了参考依据。The paper focused on the influence of the development tendency which is resulted from the parameter un- certainty of ground fissure. As a case study, a simulation with FLAC3D modeling was conducted under the precondition of the different soil on both sides of the ground fissure considering the extraction of groundwater in order to reveal the change of the fissure. Horizontal displacement, vertical displacement and the amplitude of the ground fissure were chosen the target for the sensitivity analysis used the methods of uniform design. The sensitivity analysis was carried out with 5 parameters, such as angle of internal friction, cohesion which could estimate the incidence of the different parameters suc- cessfully. The results show that the variety of the parameters has a significant influence on the amplitude of the ground fissure and the vertical displacement of hanging wall; the internal friction of the ground fissure is the most sensitive pa- rameter in the model. The results of the study provides a reference basis for the ground fissure treatment in the future.

关 键 词：均匀分析 参数敏感性分析 地裂缝 回归分析 FLAC3D 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学]