基于EEMD的鄱阳湖流域年降水量周期预测  

Prediction of Annual Precipitation Period of Poyang Lake Basin Based on EEMD

作　　者：郭家力[1,2,3] 祝薄丽 李英海[1,3] 郭靖[5] 张静文[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [3]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [4]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [5]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2017年第2期1-6,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401018;51409152;51509141);梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2015KJX02);三峡大学人才科研启动基金项目(KJ2014B030)

摘　　要：气候变化影响下的降水量周期变化对于认识鄱阳湖枯水具有重要意义。采用EEMD方法分别将实测和模拟年降水量分解成不同频率的成分,然后采用FFT求得各IMF分量周期,以便对比未来和基准期的周期变化。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域1961~2001年的实测年降水量序列整体存在2.5~3.5、6.5~8.0年的周期,较大尺度的周期表现不显著;ASD统计降尺度模型对序列的周期特性模拟能力良好。未来情况下,主周期相对基准期整体呈增大趋势,中小尺度周期仅有微小差别,较大尺度周期普遍增大,鄱阳湖流域年降水量过程波动剧烈程度降低。Period change of annual precipitation under the influence of climate change is of great significance to understanding low water issue of Poyang Lake.The periods of future and baseline annual precipitation were compared by using EEMD method,which decompose the observed and simulated annual precipitation into components with different frequencies.And then FFT was used to calculate the period of each IMF component.The results show that the 1961-2001 observed annual precipitation series of Poyang lake basin generally appears the period of 2.5-3.5years and 6.5-8.0years;the large-scale periods were not obvious.ASD statistical downscaling processes well ability in the simulation of period characteristics of series.For the future cases,the dominating period demonstrated an overall trend of increase while minor differences for small and medium period and general increase for larger period.The future annual precipitation process of Poyang Lake basin will be lower in intra-annual variability.

关 键 词：周期预测 EEMD 年降水量 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]