基于多项式滞后分布模型的江苏省医药产业创新投入对产出影响研究  

Impact of innovation investment on output of pharmaceutical industry in Jiangsu province based on polynomial distribution lag model

作　　者：曹阳[1] 闫岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国药科大学国际医药商学院,南京211198

出　　处：《中国新药杂志》2017年第4期361-367,共7页Chinese Journal of New Drugs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDB167)子课题:我国创新药物发展水平和发展政策环境需求分析

摘　　要：本文主要研究各创新要素投入对创新产出的影响,首先利用熵权法对江苏省医药产业创新绩效现状进行评价,并运用阿尔蒙多项式分布滞后模型对影响江苏省医药产业创新产出的因素进行实证检验。结果表明:近年来江苏省创新投入的增长速度高于产出的增长速度,产业创新绩效有待提高;同时多项式分布滞后模型估计结果表明,R&D全时人员当量和研发资本投入对新产品销售收入的促进作用分别在投入后的第2,3和5年显现,新产品开发资本投入则一直对其产生正向影响;研发资本和新产品开发资本投入分别在投入后前3年和第2年开始对专利申请数产生促进作用,R&D全时人员当量则一直对其产生正向影响。In this paper,the effects of innovation inputs on innovation output were studied. First,entropy method was used to evaluate the status quo of the innovation performance of pharmaceutical industry in Jiangsu province. By using Almon polynomial distribution lag model,the influencing factors on pharmaceutical industry innovation output in Jiangsu province were empirically tested. The results show that the innovation investment is growing faster than output in recent years,and the growth rate and industry innovation performance need to be improved. At the same time,estimation using the polynomial distribution lag model shows that RD personnel fulltime equivalent and RD capital investment promote income of new product sales,and the effect appears in 2,3 and 5 years,respectively,after the investment; while the capital investment to new product development always has a positive impact. RD capital and capital investment to develop new products have an effect in the first three and two years,respectively,on the number of patent applications. RD personnel full-time equivalent always has its positive effects.

关 键 词：熵权法 发展状况 多项式分布滞后模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：R95[医药卫生—药学]