中国的产能过剩:程度测算与行业分布  

Overcapacity in China: Measurement and Distribution

作　　者：张少华[1] 蒋伟杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院 [2]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第1期89-102,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：张少华主持的国家自然科学基金常规面上项目"中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实;形成机理及宏观后果"(71673253);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目"中国能源效率提高之谜:基于测度方法和作用机制的破解研究"(17NDJC253YB);浙江省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地浙江理工大学应用经济学基地项目(2015YJYB01;2016YJYB09);国家留学基金项目的资助

摘　　要：企业的生产过程是一个跨期动态决策过程,传统效率评价方法(非参数前沿面分析方法和随机前沿面分析方法)只应用初始投入和最终产出计算效率值,而忽视企业生产过程中的跨期经营活动,从而可能错误估计中国的产能过剩程度。为此,本文拓展了Tone&Tsutsui(2010)提出的DSBM模型,采用基于冗余的DSBM模型重新测度了中国省际工业产能利用率。研究表明:(1)静态DEA方法与动态DEA方法测度的产能利用率存在显著差异。静态方法由于忽略企业的动态决策过程,倾向于低估产能利用率、高估产能过剩以及产生产能利用率过度波动的假象。而本文动态方法测度的我国平均产能利用率为60.68%,确实存在严重的产能过剩问题,并具有明显的顺周期特征。(2)基于注册类型、轻重行业以及规模的动态分析发现,产能过剩问题在各个层面均存在。国有企业产能利用率高于其他注册类型企业;重工业产能利用率低于轻工业产能利用率;大规模企业产能利用率低于中小规模企业。(3)东部地区不存在产能过剩问题,而中部、西部以及东北均存在严重的产能过剩问题,这种现象在不同注册类型、行业以及规模层面均存在,说明根植于不同地区的市场化水平、开放程度以及产权保护力度等因素可能是解释产能过剩地区差异的终极原因。Overcapacity, local government debt, and the real estate bubble are three major threats to the Chinese economy. The chronic problem of overcapacity has plagued the Chinese economy for many years and has been the focus of macro control. The literature on this topic emphasizes the causes rather than the measurement of overcapacity; and the methods used （investigation method, trend-through-peak method, production function method, and data envelopment analysis method） are static; they overlook the inter temporal decision procedure of firms. We argue that overcapacity is a byproduct of firms＇ market decision and that it is necessary to incorporate firms＇ multi-stage input-output procedure into the model to measure overcapacity in China. We thus extend the DSBM model proposed by Tone ＆ Tsutsui （2010） and use inventory as a carry-over activity to re-estimate provincial industrial capacity utilization in China. Our sample covers 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities in 2001 -2011, and the input and output data are from China Industry Economy Statistical Yearbooks. Our major findings are as follows. （1）There is a significant difference between the static DEA method and the dynamic DEA method in measuring capacity utilization. The static method tends to underestimate capacity utilization and overestimate the excess capacity and the excess volatility of capacity utilization. The results of the dynamic method show that the average capacity utilization rate is 60.68% ; thus, there is a serious problem of excess capacity and an obvious pro- cyclicality property. （2） The dynamic analysis of register type, industrial type, and firm scale indicates that the problem of excess capacity exists at all levels. The capacity utilization of SOEs is higher than that of other types of enterprises, the utilization of heavy industry capacity is lower than that of light industries, and the utilization of large enterprises is [ower than that of small and medium enterprises. （3） The eastern region of China does not

关 键 词：产能过剩 产能利用率 动态SBM 存货 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224