经济增长收敛与“中等收入陷阱”——基于亚洲经济体的实证研究  

Economic Growth Convergence and “the Middle Income Trap”: An Empirical Study Based on Asian Economies

作　　者：闫森[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学东南亚研究中心

出　　处：《亚太经济》2017年第1期5-11,52,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

摘　　要：根据亚洲15个经济体目前的人均GDP,将被研究对象分成日本和"亚洲四小",马来西亚、泰国和中国,以及其他经济体三个组别,并归类了不同经济体的相似发展阶段,确立样本区间。在此基础上,根据经济增长收敛理论,使用"β收敛"的判定方法验证了不同组别间存在不同的收敛曲线,并通过进一步对比发现:与发达国家人均产出水平相比,第一组经济体虽已跨入高收入水平,但尚未达到增长稳态;第二组经济体中马来西亚和泰国先后陷入"中等收入陷阱",而中国是否陷入目前仍缺乏数据支持;第三组经济体则无法得到"β收敛"的结论。在充分考虑研究对象间的可比性和异质性基础上,作者认为能否实现从较低增长收敛曲线向更高收敛曲线的转移才是成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键。According to the current GDP Per capita,the 15 Asian countries are divided into 3 groups: Japan and 'Four Tigers',China,Malaysia and Thailand,and the other ASEAN countries,so similar development stages are also identified afterwards. Based on the hypothesis of economic growth convergence,the empirical investigations reveal that: the first group are successfully transforming to a high-income convergence path,but do not reach the level of high-income steady state; Malaysia and Thailand have caught in the 'Middle-Income Trap',but China have not; and no convergence conclusion can be drawn from the data of the third group. The different convergence lines suggest that if a country fails to jump from one convergence path to a higher one,the country will end up in the state where the gap to the high income level will not be narrowed,so the income gap remains permanently.

关 键 词：经济增长收敛 中等收入陷阱 实证分析 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]