从“三元悖论”看人民币汇率制度选择  

Alternatives of RMB Exchange Rate System in “Trilemma”

作　　者：刘晨阳[1] 杨立娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学APEC研究中心 [2]南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所

出　　处：《亚太经济》2017年第1期63-70,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"亚太区域经济一体化新趋势与中国的战略选择研究"(16JJD790027)的部分成果

摘　　要：分析了我国现有的资本流动状况、货币政策和汇率制度,从汇率制度面临投机性货币攻击风险的视角,结合我国"有管理的浮动汇率制度"全面解读三元悖论。通过分析得出,本国和外国经济周期不同、国内汇率升值与通胀并存、汇率贬值与经济紧缩并存是汇率政策与货币政策冲突的主要条件。为保证现阶段货币政策独立性,我国应在符合国内经济发展状况的前提下建立更加富有弹性的汇率制度,同时加强金融市场监管,积极引导预期,从而稳定国民经济。We analyze the capital flowstatus,the monetary policy and the exchange rate system in China. From the perspective of speculative currency attack risks to exchange rate system,we interpret 'trilemma'comprehensively combined with 'managed floating exchange system 'in our country. There exist three conditions in which exchange rate system and monetary policy conflict. The first one is the difference of domestic and foreign economic cycles,the second is domestic currency appreciation and inflation coexist,and the third is exchange rate depreciation and economic contraction coexist. In order to ensure the independence of current monetary policy in open economy,China is suggested to build a more flexible exchange rate system according to domestic economic development. At the same time,the government would stabilize the national economy by means of strengthen the regulation of financial markets and guide the expectation positively.

关 键 词：三元悖论 人民币汇率制度 货币政策 投机性货币攻击 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]