交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应研究  

Spatial Spillover Effects of Chinese Transport Infrastructure on Regional Economic Growth

作　　者：郭晓黎[1] 李红昌[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院运输及经济研究所,北京100081 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第4期130-133,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171113)

摘　　要：文章利用探索性空间数据分析方法,发现2000—2014年我国区域经济发展存在显著的空间集群趋势以及正向空间自相关。利用2000年、2007年和2014年31个省份的数据,实证检验交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应。研究表明:资本、劳动力仍是区域经济增长的首要驱动要素,人力资本、政府支出、贸易开放度和交通基础设施发挥积极的协同作用。交通基础设施对区域经济增长的直接效应在总效应中仍占绝对优势,而传统研究未考虑空间溢出效应则将高估交通基础设施对经济增长的直接效应。Based on the methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, this paper proves that the spatial clustering trend and positive spatial autocorrelation on Chinese regional economic development are significant from 2000 to 2014. According to 31 provincial data in 2000, 2007 and 2014, we conducts an empirical study concerning the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth. The result shows that the capital and labor still make the largest contributions to the regional economic growth, the human capital, government expenditure, trade openness and the transport infrastructure play a more and more important positive role in promoting the economic development. Moreover, the direct effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth still account for the vast majority of the whole effects. A positive spatial spillover effect significantly exists and without considering the spatial spillover effects will overestimate the direct effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth.

关 键 词：交通基础设施 区域经济增长 空间溢出效应 探索性空间数据分析 空间滞后模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]