日本自由贸易区战略的“出口效应”分析  

The Impact of Japan's FTA Strategy on its Export

作　　者：赵金龙[1] 顾玉龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学经济学院,上海200444

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2017年第2期85-100,共16页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(13CJY002)

摘　　要：日本FTA战略对其外贸出口的影响如何?对此,运用倾向得分匹配模型为2001~2014年日本实施的FTA找到了可供比较的对照组,然后运用双重倍差模型实证分析了日本FTA对成员国的"出口效应"。研究发现:第一,日本FTA战略具有较强的政策内生性;第二,日本FTA战略促进了日本对FTA成员国的平均出口;第三,日本不同FTA之间的"出口效应"存在明显差异;第四,日本对洲外FTA成员国的"出口效应"大于洲内FTA成员国;第五,日本FTA的"出口效应"具有一定的滞后性。What is the impact of Japan＇s FTA strategy on its foreign trade export？ This paper shows the findings of a comparative control group for Japan＇s FTA treatment group implemented from 2001 to 2014 with PSM model and empirical analysis on the export effect of Japan＇s FTA with different models. The paper makes five conclusions. first, Japan＇s FTA strategy has a strong policy endogeneity. Besides, Japan＇s FTA strategy has successfully increased its average exports to FTA members. In addition, there are significant differences on export effects among FTA members with Japan. What＇s more, the export effects of Japan＇s FTAs from intra-continent members are generally greater than those from inter-continent members.Finally, the export effects of Japan＇s FTAs lag behind to some extent.

关 键 词：日本FTA战略 双重倍差模型 外贸出口 平均处理效应 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]