债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应  

The Threshold Effect of Local Government Debt on Economic Growth in China

作　　者：刁伟涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学经贸学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年第3期59-77,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：2016年教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"债务置换下地方政府债务风险的再评估与防范:基于偿债策略设计的视角"(16YJC790015)的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法:基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现:中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应:当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新:引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值:对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。Research Objectives. The economic growth threshold effect of local government debt in China. Research Methods. Based on the debt ratio （the ratio of local government debt to comprehensive revenue）, This paper uses the debt data in 2010-2014 of 30 provinces, and the economic growth effect of local government debt is empirically researched. Research Findings： There is significant economic growth threshold effect of China＇s local government debt. When debt ratio is higher than 112%, the original positive and significant role of promoting economic growth will tend to be zero, and its transmission channel is as follows, high debt ratios of local government means debt service pressure which can affect fiscal expenditure of economic development orientation. Research Innovations： Introducing the indicator of debt ratios and using its corresponding perspective to analysis debt service pressure which underlying the effect mechanism of economic growth. Research Value： The result can be used to manage local government debt and control its risk.

关 键 词：地方债务 经济增长 门限效应 债务率 偿债压力 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]