境外人民币现钞流通规模测算研究  

The Study on the Overseas RMB Currency Circulation Scale Measurement

作　　者：吴卫华[1] 樊豪[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行杭州中心支行,浙江杭州310001 [2]中国人民银行绍兴市中心支行,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《浙江金融》2017年第1期13-19,共7页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：本文基于1990年至2016年季度数据,运用间接法中的自回归分布滞后法构建现金需求模型预测现金需求理论值,与对应时期的实际现金发行量相减测算出境外人民币现钞流通规模。最终估算结果表明,2004年第1季度至2016年第3季度的人民币现钞境外流通规模,呈现波动上升的趋势,最近两年平均都在2000亿元以上,占到现金总量的比率均值在4.09%。本文创新点在于对人民币现钞跨境流通状况突变点通过计量检验进行了选择。This paper studies on the demand for RMB currency in overseas market during 1990~2016, using quarterly data over the period. We use the autoregressive distributed lag method to build cash demand model in order to get the forecast theoretical value, then we deduct the contemporaneous real currency issuing amount. As a result we can calculate the circulation scale. The innovation of this paper is we use Econometric Testing in searching the break point. The calculated results show that the Overseas RMB Currency Circulation Scale fluctuate upward trend during 2004 and 2016.In recent years; there are more than 200 billion Yuan in average on oversea market, which accounted for the total currency 4.09% in average.

关 键 词：流通规模 自回归分布滞后法 CHOW检验 

分 类 号：F820.4[经济管理—财政学]