基于应急决策视角的案例检索及属性权重确定方法  

The method of case retrieval with determining case attribute weights based on emergency decision perspective

作　　者：郑晶[1,2] 王应明[1] 张恺[3] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学决策科学研究所,福建福州350116 [2]福建江夏学院电子信息科学学院,福建福州350108 [3]福建船政交通职业学院信息工程系,福建福州350007

出　　处：《山东大学学报（理学版）》2017年第1期56-64,共9页Journal of Shandong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(70925004);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J01248);福建省教育厅科技项目(JB14122);福建江夏学院青年科研人才培育基金资助项目(JXZ2014009)

摘　　要：案例推理是突发事件中生成应急方案的一种有效方法,而案例检索是案例推理的重要步骤。针对应急决策中存在决策者的风险态度和问题与解间关联的问题,提出了基于前景理论和灰色系统理论的案例检索方法。根据前景理论定义属性距离的前景值,根据灰色系统理论定义问题与解之间的关联度,并以此构建方案偏差最小化的非线性权重优化模型,求解模型得到最优权重,最后根据相似度确定最优备选方案。通过一个应急案例来验证所提出方法的可行性。Case-based reasoning is one of the effective methods to generate emergency alternative in the emergency, and case retrieval is an important process. We propose a case retrieval method based on prospect theory and grey system the- ory to deal with the situation of considering the influence of the decision makers＇ risk attitude and the relevance between the problem and the solution, respectively. The prospect value is defined based on the prospect theory, the correlation degree between the solution and the problem is defined according to the grey system theory. Furthermore, the nonlinear weight optimization models of minimum deviation are constructed to get the optimal weights. Then the optimal alterna- tive can be determined according to the similarity of the emergency cases. Finally, we prove the feasibility of the pro- posed method through an emergency case.

关 键 词：案例推理 属性权重 应急决策 优化模型 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]