基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率  

Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves

作　　者：胡尊乐 张悦[1] 李丹[1] 汪姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局,江苏常州213022

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2017年第2期68-72,94,共6页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

摘　　要：基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1 d、3 d降水量资料,利用Copula联结函数构建联合分布函数,推算相应的同现重现期和组合风险率,并以此为基础,评价常州市2015年"6·26"暴雨可能的重现期和风险率。结果表明:某一设计标准下的年最大1 d、3 d降水遭遇时的同现重现期大于年最大1 d或3 d降水单变量对应的重现期;同一设计频率的暴雨遭遇的风险率较高,且随着重现期增大而减小;"6·26"暴雨的同现重现期为218 a,同现风险率为17.4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性和罕见性,常州市未来的防洪形势将更为严峻。Based on annual maximum 1-day and 3-day rainfall data from the Changzhou precipitation station from 1951 to 2015 , a joint distribution function was constructed using the Copula function, and the corresponding co-occurrence return period and risk of rainstorm combination were calculated. Then, the function was used to evaluate the probable return period and risk of a rainstorm in Changzhou City on June 26, 2015. The results show that the co-occurrence return period when the annual maximum 1 -day and 3 -day rainfall according to a certain design standard encounter is larger than the respective return periods of annual maximum 1 -day and 3 -day rainfall. The risk when two rainstorms with the same design frequency encounter is higher, and will decrease with the increase of the corresponding return period. The co-occurrence return period of the rainstorm in Changzhou on June 26 is 218 years, when the co-occurrence risk is only 17. 4% , indicating that this rainstorm is special and rare. Flood control in Changzhou City still faces severe issues in the future.

关 键 词：暴雨组合 联结函数 年最大1d降水 年最大3d降水 常州“6·26”暴雨 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]