CFSv2模式对东北地区夏季各月降水的预测性能评估  

Prediction performance of CFSv2 model for monthly precipitation in summer in Northeast China

作　　者：李永生[1] 邢程 任桂林[3] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]木兰县气象局,黑龙江哈尔滨151900 [3]黑龙江省气象局,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》2016年第4期6-8,共3页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：利用距平相关系数(ACC)、距平符号一致率(Pc)、趋势异常综合检验(Ps)等3种方法,对CFSv2模式在东北地区开展的1983-2010年夏季各月降水回报试验结果、2011-2014年业务应用结果进行综合评估。结果表明,CFSv2模式在东北地区夏季各月降水的效果相对较好。尽管目前应用的业务评分办法的评分都相对较高,但年际差异明显,预测效果不稳定,需要进一步提高模式的预测技巧。Three methods of anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC）, anomaly sign consistency rate （Pc） and trend anomaly comprehensive test （Ps） are used to evaluate the CFSv2 pattern in the northeast region of 1983-2010 for each month of summer precipitation return test results and 2011-2014 business application results. The results show that, The effect of CFSv2 model on monthly precipitation in summer in Northeast China is relatively good. Despite the relatively high scores of the current business scoring methods, the inter-annual variability is signifi- cant and the predictive effect is not stable, so further improvement of the forecasting skill is needed.

关 键 词：东北地区 CFSv2 月预测 检验 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]