房价预期对消费及购房意愿影响实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on the Influence of the Expectation of Housing Price on the Inclination of Consumption and House Purchase

作　　者：贾培龙 李勇[2] 黄晓宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]东亚银行合肥分行,安徽合肥200120 [2]中国药科大学国际医药商学院,江苏南京211198

出　　处：《江苏商论》2017年第1期13-16,共4页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015PYW03);中国药科大学医药产业发展研究中心社科基金课题(CPUSJ1303)资助

摘　　要：本文基于2009年1季度至2015年3季度央行城镇储户问卷调查数据,利用Tobit模型实证考察房价及其影响。一方面,房价预期上涨不仅对总体消费意愿有负向作用,而且对购车意愿、大额商品消费意愿和旅游意愿均具有负向作用;另一方面,房价预期上涨却在一定程度上提高了购房意愿。进一步分析显示,当期房价对房价预期具有正向推动作用。本文的实证分析结果证实了房价上涨对消费的挤出效应,从房价上涨的角度解释了我国消费需求不足的原因。Using Tobit model, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of the expectation of housing price on the inclination of consumption and house purchase based on the data from the People＇s Bank of China. The results show that the influences of the expectation of housing price on the inclination of consumption and house purchase are heterogeneous. On the one hand, the expectation of housing price going up is negatively related to consumption inclination. On the other hand, the expectation of housing price going up promotes the inclination of house purchase. Furthermore, we find that current housing price stimulates the expectation of housing price going up. In sum, there is a spillover effect between housing price going up and consumption. Therefore, there paper explains why consumer demand is not sufficient in China from the point of view of housing price.

关 键 词：房价预期 消费意愿 购房意愿 

分 类 号：TU113.5[建筑科学—建筑理论]