逃离“北上广深”背景下一线城市房价涟漪效应研究  

Under the background of flee “BSGS”:The ripple effects of first-tier cities' house prices

作　　者：王书斌[1,2] 徐盈之[3] 魏莎[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学江苏产业发展研究院,南京210003 [2]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,南京210046 [3]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096 [4]江苏省财政厅,南京210024

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年第2期339-352,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：江苏省社科基金重点项目(14EYA003);江苏省社科基金重大项目(14ZD011);国家社科基金重点项目(15AJY009)~~

摘　　要：本文基于逃离"北上广深"背景,研究了一线城市对二三线城市的房价涟漪效应,并从城市规模大小、距一线城市远近和涟漪效应高低三个方面,对比分析各因素对涟漪效应的影响.研究发现:1)逃离"北上广深"背景下,产业相似度、生活舒适性差距、交通便捷性、住房市场信息距离、社会文化距离、就业增长率、开放度和总储蓄均对涟漪效应表现出显著促进作用;2)二线城市各因素的影响程度均大于三线城市;3)随着与一线城市距离的增加,产业相似度、交通便捷性、就业增长率和开放度的影响呈递减趋势,生活舒适性差距呈递增趋势,住房市场信息距离和总储蓄基本与距离无关;4)随分位数提高,多数变量的影响程度增强,表现出"加速效应".This paper studied the ripple effects between first-tier cities＇ and second-tier cities＇/third-tier cities＇ house prices under the background of fee ＂Beijing. Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen＂ （＂BSGS＂） and analyzed the influence of factors on the ripple effect from three aspects： city size, distance from first-tier city, degree of ripple effect. It showed that： 1） The degree of industrial similarity, gap of life amenity, transport convenience, information flow efficiency between cities, gap of culture, rate of employment growth, city openness, total savings had significant positive influence on ripple effects under the background of flee ＂Beijing, Shanghai. Guangzhou, Shenzhen＂ （＂BSGS＂）. 2） The influence degree of factors in second-tier cities were bigger than third-tier cities＇. 3） With increasing of distances from first-tier city, the influence degree of industrial similarity, transport convenience, rate of employment growth, city openness became weaker, the influence degree of gap of life amenity became stronger, and there was no relationship between distance and influence degree of information flow efficiency between cities, total savings. 4） With quantile increasing, most factors＇ influence degree had enhanced. It showed the ＂accelerating effect＂.

关 键 词：逃离“北上广深” 一线城市房价 涟漪效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]