基于前景理论和证据推理的混合直觉模糊决策  

Intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid multi-criteria decision making based on prospect theory and evidential reasoning

作　　者：包甜甜 谢新连[1] 孟鹏鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学综合运输研究所

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年第2期460-468,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20102125110002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132016358)~~

摘　　要：针对不确定的混合多属性决策问题,提出基于前景理论和证据推理的直觉模糊决策方法.首先通过直觉模糊数描述决策信息,保留了决策数据的不确定性,并实现了精确数、区间数和语言变量3种混合型属性的信息统一.其次考虑人的有限理性,结合前景理论,以直觉模糊数的形式表示前景决策矩阵.再次,运用证据理论合成方案的综合前景值,减少了决策信息的丢失,并以此对方案进行排序和优选.最后,以航运企业竞争力综合评估为实例,通过分析表明了该方法具有合理性和可行性.For the hybrid multi-criteria decision making problems with uncertainty, an intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making approach based on prospect theory and evidential reasoning is proposed. First, three kinds of hybrid information including precision numbers, interval numbers and linguistic variables are unified by intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to retain the uncertainty of decision. Then, prospect decision matrix considering limited rationality of prospect theory is expressed by intuitionistic fuzzy number. Finally, prospect decision information integration using evidential reasoning approach is put forward to reduce the decision information miss in the calculation and to sort all the alternatives and select the best one. An illustrative example shows that the proposed method has rationality and feasibility.

关 键 词：混合多属性决策 不确定性 直觉模糊数 前景理论 证据推理 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]