基于路网的风险评估模型在警务实践中的应用  

Application of Road Network-based Risk Assessment Model in Policing Practice

作　　者：林平[1] 陈鹏[2] 疏学明[3] 邵勇宏[4] 周西平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学反恐怖学院,北京100038 [2]中国人民公安大学信息技术与网络安全学院,北京100076 [3]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100083 [4]江苏警官学院公安管理系,江苏南京210031

出　　处：《情报探索》2017年第2期12-19,共8页Information Research

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目"城镇社会安全风险评估与应急处置技术研究与示范"(项目编号:2015BAK12B03)研究成果

摘　　要：[目的/意义]研究基于路网的风险评估模型在警务实践中的应用,帮助警方提升风险研判能力。[方法/过程]以台北市自行车盗窃案件为例,通过空间句法、风险地形模型、回归分析、基于路网约束空间分析等定量分析与定性分析方法,对自行车盗窃案件相关因素创建加权风险地图,绘制基于路网的犯罪风险地图。[结果/结论]通过与实际的自行车盗窃案件地理分布对比,验证了该模型具有优异效能,符合实际应用的需求。[Purpose/significance]The paper is to study applications of road network-based risk assessment model in policing practice, to improve risk analysis ability of the police.[Method/process]The paper takes bicycle theft cases in Taipei City for example,uses methods of quantitative analysis such as space syntax, risk terrain model, regression analysis, road network-based spatial analysis,and qualitative methods, to create weighted risk map for correlative factors of bicycle theft cases, and draws road network-based crime risk map.[Result/conclusion]Compared with actual regional distribution of bicycle theft cases, it verifies that road network-based risk assessment model has excellent performance and meets requirements of practical application.

关 键 词：风险评估 空间分析 警务地理信息系统 空间句法 风险地形模型 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]