2017年上海经济运行预测与对策  

Forecast of Shanghai Economy in 2017 and Countermeasures

作　　者：张兆安[1] 邸俊鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2017年第1期3-14,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：该文基于上海2016年之前的宏观经济数据并结合国内外宏观经济形势,采用景气分析和情景分析方法,建立宏观经济计量模型,预测2017年上海经济处于基准情景的概率为75%,其GDP增速为6.5%左右。在此基础上,针对当前和未来一段时间上海将面临"制造业25%底线"、财政收入受国家对房地产和金融调控的冲击以及"2500万人口底线"等约束,提出了推动上海经济发展的对策措施。Based on Shanghai macroeconomic data in 2016 and the domestic and international economic situation, the report uses the climate and scenario analyzing method, builds macroeconometric model and predicts the pr0bability as 75% of Shanghai＇s economy in 2017 to be in a benchmark scene and the economic growth rate around 6.5 %. Considering three important issues like the manufacturing ＂bottom line＂ as 25%, fiscal revenue sustainability facing shocks from real estate and finance, as well as the population ＂bottom line＂ as 25 million, the paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions.

关 键 词：上海经济 经济运行预测 景气分析 情景分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]