中国的经济影响与东亚国家民众对华评价--经济受惠度与发展主义的调节效应分析  

China's Overseas Economic Engagement and East Asian Public Attitudes Towards China:An Analysis Based on the Moderating Effect of “Perception of Economic Improvement” and “Developmentalism”

作　　者：庞琴[1,2] 梁意颖 潘俊豪 

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院,广州510275 [2]中山大学南海战略研究院 [3]中山大学心理学系,广州510006

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2017年第2期130-154,共25页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：中山大学南海战略研究院2015年度项目“‘一带一路’研究”;中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师培育项目的资助

摘　　要：东亚是中国对外经济联系最为紧密的区域之一,对中国经济发展和国家安全具有重要战略意义。中国与东亚日趋加强的贸易和投资关系将会如何影响其民众对中国的态度?在"一带一路"战略背景下,对该问题的探讨具有重要的理论和现实意义。作者通过多层线性模型分析发现,中国和东亚国家的经贸依存度与其民众对中国的评价存在显著负相关,即与中国经贸关系紧密的国家,其民众对中国的评价反而低。我们通过建立调节效用模型并对调节模式进行分析,发现这是由于"经济发展受惠度"和"发展主义倾向"的调节作用所致:在这两项调节指标高的国家中,中国对其经济影响越大,民众对中国的评价越积极;而在这两项指标低的国家,中国的经济影响越大,民众对中国的评价越负面。研究结果提示,中国加强对外投资和贸易时应该了解对象国家的这两组民众指标,通过适当舆论引导,减少民众层面的阻力与风险。这一研究从理论上拓展了新功能主义的观念"溢出效应"模型,并从对外经济联系的角度拓展了目前有关中国软实力的研究。East Asia is of primary strategic significance for China's economic development and national security. How will China 's increasing trade and investment with East Asian countries affect their people's attitudes toward China? This is a question of both theoretical importance and practical implications for China's foreign economic activities,and it has yet not been systematically examined. This study, by adopting multi-level regression model analysis,finds that China's economic interactions with the East Asian countries are negatively correlated with these countries' public evaluation of China. In other words, countries with closer economic relations with China tend to hold more negative public views of China. Further study shows that the negative relations are closely related with the moderating effect of two ideational factors,'perception of economic improvement' and 'developmentalism'. This study contributes to existing theory of regional economic integration by building a nuanced 'ideational spillover effect' model based on the New Functionalism. It also puts forward a new explanation for motivation and resistance at the public level for regional economic integration. In addition, this study also expands the current literature concerning China 's soft power by linking foreign public evaluations of China with China's economic activities.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 受惠度 发展主义 软实力 观念溢出 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F125