新疆油田超稠油蒸汽吞吐产量递减率预测新方法  

New techniques for prediction of productivity reduction in extra-heavy oil development through steam soaking in the Xinjiang Oilfield

作　　者：杨新平[1] 汪洋[1] 张利锋[1] 顾振刚[1] 王金辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油新疆油田分公司,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《特种油气藏》2017年第1期96-100,共5页Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs

基　　金：国家科技重大专项"薄层稠油和超稠油开发技术"(2011ZX05012-004);中国石油油气开发重大专项"浅层稠油;超稠油开发技术研究"(2012E-34-05)

摘　　要：针对目前超稠油油藏常用递减率预测方法无法直接反映储集层关键参数的问题,基于递减理论和超稠油油藏蒸汽吞吐递减特征,结合油藏动态分析、数值模拟等方法对影响超稠油递减的主要因素进行敏感性分析,确定主控因素为有效厚度、原油黏度、注汽干度。运用模糊数学层次分析法确定递减影响因素权重,通过主控因素与初始递减率的相关性分析和多元回归,建立初始递减率预测模型和递减率预测图版。应用实例表明,该方法预测的超稠油蒸汽吞吐递减率与实际递减率相对误差小于5%。该研究为今后超稠油蒸汽吞吐合理产量预测奠定了基础。Conventional reduction rate prediction techniques deployed for extra-heavy oil reservoirs may not directly reflect key parameters of reservoir formations. Based on reduction theory and features in productivity reduction in de- velopment of extra-heavy oil reservoirs through steam soaking, and with consideration to reservoir dynamic analysis, numerical simulation and other techniques, sensitivity analyses have been performed for major factors that may affect reduction in extra-heavy oil productivity. Eventually, effective thickness, oil viscosity and dryness of injected steam were determined to be major controlling factors. By using level analysis techniques in fuzzy mathematics, weights of different influencing factors for productivity reduction have been determined. In addition, initial reduction rate fore- cast model and reduction rate prediction plots have been constructed through correlation and muhi-elmnent regres- sion of major controlling factors and initial reduction rates. Field application data show the relative error between the reduction rate predicted for extra-heavy oil development through steam soaking and actual reduction rate is less than 5%. Relevant research results may establish reliable foundation for proper forecast of productivity in extra-heavy oil development through steam soaking.

关 键 词：超稠油 递减率 预测模型 蒸汽吞吐 新疆油田 

分 类 号：TE33[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]