国际原油价格、货币政策与农产品价格  

The International Crude Oil Price, the Monetary Policy and the Agricultural Product Price

作　　者：李靓[1] 穆月英[1] 赵亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2017年第3期87-96,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：北京市社科基金重点项目(编号:15JGA020);高等学校博士点专项科研基金(编号:20120008110032);现代农业产业技术体系创新团队项目(BAIC01-2016);自然科学基金青年项目(编号:71403275)资助

摘　　要：本文运用通径分析方法,分析国际原油价格、货币政策对农产品价格的影响机理和影响效应,并以典型农产品为例,实证分析国际原油价格、货币政策对不同农产品价格的影响。研究发现,国际原油价格、货币政策与农产品价格显著正相关,两者对农产品价格的直接影响效应较小,间接影响效应较大,其中通过城镇居民收入的间接影响最大;在典型农产品价格波动分析中,国际原油价格对典型农产品价格的直接影响效应较小,间接影响效应较大,其中通过货币政策的间接影响最大;货币政策对典型农产品价格的直接影响效应较大,说明改变货币政策可以直接对典型农产品价格产生影响。In this paper, we use path analysis method to discuss the impact of international crude oil price and monetary policy on agricultural price in China. And then we take typical agricultural products as an example to analyze the impact of international crude oil price and monetary policy on different agricultural price. The main results are as follows： the international crude oil price and monetary policy have a significant positive correlation with the agricultural producer price; and the indirect impact of the two factors on the agricultural price is greater than the direct impact, which is mainly determined by the income of urban residents. In the research of the fluctuation of typical agricultural products price, the direct impact of the international crude oil price on the typical agricultural products price is smaller than the indirect impact, which is mainly determined by monetary policy. The direct impact of the monetary policy on the typical agricultural products price is greater than the indirect impact. This implies that the typical agricultural products price can be influenced significantly by different monetary policies.

关 键 词：国际原油价格 货币政策 农产品价格 通径分析法 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]