气候与土地利用变化下宁夏清水河流域径流模拟  

Runoff prediction for Ningxia Qingshui River Basin under scenarios of climate and land use changes

作　　者：李帅[1,2] 魏虹[1] 刘媛[1] 马文超[1] 顾艳文[1] 彭月[3] 李昌晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室西南大学生命科学学院,重庆400715 [2]中国林业科学研究院沙漠林业实验中心,磴口015200 [3]重庆市林业科学研究院,重庆400036

出　　处：《生态学报》2017年第4期1252-1260,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家国际科技合作专项(2015DFA90900)

摘　　要：气候和土地利用变化是影响水资源变化最直接的因素。应用SWAT模型对干旱半干旱区小流域宁夏清水河流域径流进行多情景模拟预测,以历史气候要素变化趋势和CA-Markov模型分别设置未来气候和土地利用变化情景,以决定系数R2和Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数Ens(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient)来衡量模拟值与实测值之间的拟合度,并评价模型在清水河流域的适用性。结果表明,韩府湾站在校准期和验证期的R^2分别为0.80和0.71,Ens分别为0.77和0.69,泉眼山站在校准期和验证期的R2分别为0.66和0.63,Ens分别为0.62和0.56,表明构建的SWAT模型可以用于清水河流域的径流模拟。对未来气候和土地利用变化情景下径流的模拟结果显示,径流变化主要由降水变化主导,降水减少和气温升高的综合作用对流域径流变化影响最为显著;由于耕地和建设用地的增加,未来3种土地利用情景下流域径流量将均会呈现明显增加变化。与2010年相比,到2020年,自然增长情景流域径流将增加17.04%,林地保护情景径流将增加14.44%,规划情景径流将增加13.98%;综合降水、气温和土地利用的结合变化情景显示,未来流域径流将会有不同程度的下降,规划情景和气候变化的结合情景的径流下降最为明显,而有意增大林地和加强生态保护的林地保护情景对减缓流域径流下降具有一定作用。在气候变化的大背景下,根据水资源利用管理目标,可通过调整流域管理措施,特别是土地利用变化和改善区域小气候来减缓气候变化对流域水资源的负面效果,以此来改善流域径流和生态环境状况。Climate and land use changes are very important factors that directly influence water resources. To predict runoff under climate and land use changes in Ningxia Qingshui River Basin, which is a typical basin located in the arid and semi-arid area of Yellow River Valley, the distributed hydrologic SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination （R^2） and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient （Ens） at the Hanfuwan and Quanyanshan hydrological stations. Several future climate and land use change scenarios for the year 2020 were set using the climate historical trend and CA-Markov model. The calibration and validation results for Hanfuwan station showed that R^2 was 0.80 and 0.71, and ENS was 0.77 and 0.69, respectively, while the results for Quanyanshan station showed that R^2 was 0.66 and 0.63, and ENS was 0.62 and 0.56, respectively. The results suggested that the SWAT model could be used to predict the runoff under climate and land use changes in Qingshui River basin. Further, our results showed that runoff was dominated by precipitation, and the result under the scenario of reduced precipitation combined with increased temperature had the largest impacts. Runoff can be expected increase in the future land use scenarios because of the increasing farmland and built-up area. Under natural growth, planned development, and woodland/ecological protection scenario, the runoff in 2020 would increase by 17.04%, 14.44%, and 13.98% respectively compared with 2010. Lastly, the runoff change in 2020 was predicted by SWAT model under the combine of land use scenarios and climate change scenarios. The results showed that the runoff would decrease in the future under all combinations of scenarios. Among them, the runoff decreased perceptibly under the combination of planned development scenario and climate changes, and the woodland/ecological protection measure is helpful to slow down the rate of runoff decline under all climate change scenarios in the future. Therefore, in the context of climate cha

关 键 词：气候变化 土地利用变化 宁夏清水河流域 SWAT模型 径流模拟 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]