城镇化发展对农业供给侧结构变动的影响——基于分布滞后模型的实证  

The Influence of Urbanization on Agricultural Supply-Side Structure Change——Empirical Analysis Based on Distributed Lag Model

作　　者：罗富民[1] 

机构地区：[1]乐山师范学院经济与管理学院,四川乐山614000

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期52-59,共8页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：乐山师范学院引进人才科研启动项目"工业化;城镇化进程中的农业区域分工深化研究"(S1331);四川省社科规划项目"农产品加工企业空间集聚发展研究"(SC15XK054)

摘　　要：揭示农业供给侧结构变动的影响因素,是制定农业供给侧结构性改革政策的基础。从理论层面探讨了城镇化发展对农业供给侧结构变动的影响,并基于分布滞后模型对其进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,城镇化发展将通过影响农产品消费需求结构和农业生产要素稀缺程度,对农业供给侧结构变动产生影响。而且这种影响存在明显的滞后效应,如果滞后效应持续时间太长,将导致农业供给侧结构性问题。因此,在推进农业供给侧结构性改革中,要创造良好的农业生产经营环境,减轻农业供给侧结构调整的滞后性,促进农产品供需双方互动协调,加强农业生产者之间分工协作。Based on a theoretical discussion of influence of urbanization on agricultural supply-side structure change and supported by the Distributed Lag Model,this article reveals that the influencing factors of agricultural supply-side structure change are the basis of agricultural supply-side reform policies.The result shows that urbanization will affect agricultural supply-side structure through consumption and demand structure of agricultural products and the scarcity of agricultural production factors,which presents an obvious lag effect.If the lag effect lasts too long,it will lead to structural problems in agricultural supply-side.Therefore,in the process of impelling the structural reform of agricultural supply-side,we should create a good environment for agricultural production and management to adjust the lag effect of agricultural supply-side structure,promote the mutual coordination between supply and demand,and strengthen the division of labor among agricultural producers.

关 键 词：城镇化 农业供给侧 结构 分布滞后模型 滞后效应 

分 类 号：F323.0[经济管理—产业经济]