交直流混合微电网运行优化建模与不确定性分析  

Operation Optimization Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Hybrid AC/DC Microgrids

作　　者：丁明[1] 楚明娟 潘浩[1] 徐志成[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省新能源利用与节能实验室(合肥工业大学),安徽省合肥市230009

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2017年第5期1-7,45,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2015AA050104)~~

摘　　要：交直流混合微电网的运行优化易受多种不确定性因素的影响,考虑不确定性因素影响下的微电网运行优化及分析各因素对运行优化影响程度并确定显著影响因素是目前值得研究的方向。文中分析并模拟了新能源出力随机性、负荷预测误差、电价波动、元件随机故障等不确定性因素,建立了考虑上述复合不确定性的交直流混合微电网运行优化模型,从经济性、环保性和可靠性三个方面构建系统运行优化评价指标体系,运用蒙特卡洛方法对系统评价指标模型进行分析并进行复合不确定性评价,得到各评价指标的概率分布及各不确定性因素对评价指标的影响权重。通过算例分析给出了对技术经济指标有显著影响的因素,为交直流混合微电网的运行优化及不确定性因素敏感性分析提供参考。As the operation optimization of hybrid AC/DC microgrids is affected by various uncertain factors,a framework for modeling the influence of these uncertain factors on the operation optimization of the microgrid should be established and the determination of the dominant factors is an important research field.Several uncertain factors,such as the fluctuant renewable energy output,load forecasting error,electricity price volatility,and component failure are analyzed and simulated.An operation optimization model of hybrid AC/DC microgrids is established based on the composite uncertainties mentioned above.Three comprehensive evaluation indices are proposed and analyzed from the perspectives of economy,environmental concerns and reliability,and an uncertainty evaluation is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation.The probability distribution of each evaluation index and the influence weight of each uncertainty factor are obtained.In the case study,the factors with a significant influence on the technical and economic indices are given through the proposed framework,which can provide the reference for the operation optimization of hybrid AC/DC microgrids and the sensitivity analysis of the uncertain factors.

关 键 词：交直流混合微电网 运行优化 蒙特卡洛模拟 不确定性评价 概率抽样 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]