黄河上游近期洪水情势预测分析  

Predicting recent flood situation in upstream of the Yellow River

作　　者：刘美[1] 秦毅[1] 李子文[1] 王文海[2] 李珂 LIU Mei QIN Yi LI Ziwen WANG Wenhai LI Ke(Key Lab of Northwest Water Resources and Environment Ecology of MOE, Xi ＇ an University of Technology, Xi ＇ an, Shaanxi 710048, China Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Reach, Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Baotou , Inner Mongolia 014000, China Shaanxi Yellow Ecological Engineering Co. ,L T D , X i ＇ an , Shaanxi 710010,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]黄河水利委员会宁蒙水文水资源局,内蒙包头014000 [3]陕西黄河生态工程有限公司,陕西西安710010

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第3期205-211,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("973"计划)项目(2011CB403305)

摘　　要：【目的】分析黄河上游唐乃亥流域年最大洪峰流量序列并对年最大洪峰流量进行预测,为内蒙古河段的防洪减淤提供参考。【方法】借鉴集合预报的思路,依据模糊数学理论和马尔科夫随机过程理论,建立黄河上游唐乃亥流域58年来年最大洪峰序列的综合预估模型,对唐乃亥流域未来几年的洪水情势进行了预估,以冲刷内蒙古河段所需流量对应的唐乃亥站流量为目标流量,分析其发生的可能性。【结果】唐乃亥站未来5年的洪水将进入中偏大的状态,年最大洪洪峰流量在2017年达到最大,量级为3 520m3/s,但出现概率仅为33%;唐乃亥站在未来几年超过目标流量洪水出现的概率为33%。【结论】未来5年中,依靠上游唐乃亥的天然来水解决内蒙古河段淤积问题的可能性较小。【Objective】The annual maximum flood peak sequence of Tangnaihai basin in upstream of the Yellow River was analysed and its peak discharge was predicted to provide reference for flood prevention and sedimentation reduction in Inner Mongolia reach.【Method】Learning from ensemble forecast,this paper set up a comprehensive forecast model based on the Fuzzy Mathematic Theory and the Markov Stochastic Process with 58 years annual maximum peak discharge sequence of Tangnaihai basin in upstream of the Yellow River.The flow of Tangnaihai basin flushing the Inner Mongolia River was set as target flow,and its occurrence was predicted.【Result】The magnitude of the flood of Tangnaihai basin in the next five years would be medium to large.The peak of 3 520m3/s in 2017 had the occurrence of 33%.The appearance probability of flood larger than typical flow in Tangnaihai was 33%in the next few years.【Conclusion】It is less likely to solve the silting problem in Inner Mongolia relying on the natural water of Tangnaihai basin.

关 键 词：黄河 内蒙古河段 洪水变化趋势 综合预估 概率预测 

分 类 号：TV85[水利工程—水利水电工程]