海南岛橡胶风害的重现期预测  

Estimation of return period of rubber wind disaster in Hainan Island

作　　者：刘少军[1] 胡德强[1] 张京红[1] 李伟光[1] 蔡大鑫[1] 张国峰[1] LIU Shao-jun HU De-qiang ZHANG Jing-hong LI Wei-guang CAI Da-xin ZHANG Guo-feng(Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science/Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, Chin)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所/海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2017年第1期172-175,F0003,共5页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41465005;41265007;41675113);海南省自然科学基金(20154172;409005)

摘　　要：研究大风极值分布的重现期是客观预估橡胶风害强度的有效方法。根据海南岛橡胶种植区1981—2010年逐日最大风速数据,采用极值Ⅰ型算法,模拟了海南岛5、10、20、30、50年一遇最大风速值分布,通过风力与橡胶风害等级表,推断了不同重现期内海南橡胶风害损失分布。结果表明,在5、10、20、30、50年一遇的重现期风速条件下,海南岛橡胶风害损失分别在5%~16%、10%~24%、16%~33%、16%~33%、24%~45%之间,而且分布范围在空间上存在明显差异。Abstract： Studying the return period of maximum wind speed is a objective evaluation method of rubber wind damage. Based on the maximum wind speed from 1981 to 2010, the maximum wind speed for 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years return period was calculated in Hainan Island by extreme value type I distribution function. Different return periods of rubber wind damage loss distribution were estimated through wind and rubber wind damage corresponding table. The results showed that in 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years return period of maximum wind speed, the rubber disaster losses ranged from 5% to 16%, 10% to 24%, 16% to 33%, 16% to 33%, 24% to 45%, respectively, and the distribution of rubber disaster losses had obvious differences in space.

关 键 词：橡胶树 风害 重现期 海南 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]