企业职工预期退休年龄及影响因素的实证研究——基于我国10省市调查数据的实证分析  

An Empirical Study of Enterprise Employees Expected Retirement Age and Its Influencing Factors:Empirical Analysis of The Ten Provinces of Survey Data

作　　者：李东方[1] 江建[1] LI Dong-fang JIANG Jian(School of Public Administration, Northwest University , Xi＇an 710127, China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学公共管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《西北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第2期30-40,共11页Journal of Northwest University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(14JZD026)

摘　　要：企业职工作为退休年龄政策调整的最大影响群体,其预期退休意愿及影响因素尤其值得关注。本文基于教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"渐进式延迟退休年龄政策的社会经济效应研究"的十省市调查数据,采用有序Logistic回归分析实证检验了企业职工预期退休年龄的影响因素。研究发现:(1)性别因素、年龄因素、健康因素、抚养赡养人数以及现行的缴费政策、对养老金改革的认知都对企业职工的预期退休年龄年限产生显著性影响。(2)从个体特征来看,女性的预期退休年龄低于男性的预期退休年龄,年龄越高的预期退休年龄年限越长,但是31-45岁的预期退休年龄年限最短。健康程度以及收入越高,预期退休年龄年限越长。(3)在家庭因素方面,抚养赡养3人的预期退休年龄年限最长,抚养赡养4人及以上的预期退休年龄年限最短。(4)在政策因素方面,认为养老保险缴费政策对生活有影响的,预期退休年龄年限最短。在对养老金改革认知上,维持养老金政策现状的预期退休年龄年限最短,将现阶段个人账户缴费率降低到5%,适当延长缴费年限的预期退休年龄年限最长。Workers, as maximum retirement age policy adjustments affected groups, are concerned with the expected retirement willingness. Based on the ＂ study on social and economic effect of prograssive delay retirements age policy＂ in ten provinces and cities survey data, this paper uses empirical ordered logistic regression analysis of the influencing factors of enterprise employees expected retirement age. The study finds ： （1）Factors like gender, age, health, the number of raising dependents and the existing payment policy, retirement age and the expected cognitiveare generate a significant impact on enterprise workers pension reform. （2）On the individual characteristics, the retirement age of women, comparing to men＇s, is expected to be shorter. The older workers are, the longer the expected retirement age is. But time of those who are the expected retirement age of 31 -45 years old is minimum. The healthier the workers are and the higher the income level is, the longer the expected retirement age is. （3）On the family factors, anticipated retirement age of people for sup- porting children and looking after three people is the longest. The expected retirement age of raising more than four people is minimum.（4）On policy factors, the expected retirement age of those who think pension contribution policies affect their lives is minimum. In recognition of the pension reform, the retirement age of those who think the pension policy is expected to maintain the status quo is minimum. The expected retirement age of those who will reduce the contribution rate to 5 % at this stage and make an appropriate extension of the pay- ment period is the longest.

关 键 词：企业职工 预期退休年龄 影响因素 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济]